I've been thinking about this for two weeks and almost forgot to post:
I feel like Carolina is the better, more well rounded team. I picked against them a lot all season and they continuously proved me wrong -- that is, except for one week when I picked them to win and they lost.
Then again, this could be Peyton Manning's swan song. This has been the worst year of his career statistically but he's made the throws when he had to, and it's feeling like he could ride out as a champion.
On my friend Andy's podcast I picked Denver to win.
But in the spirit of always hedging my bets....
Carolina 23, Denver 10
LAST WEEK: 0-2
SEASON TO DATE: 163-103
LAST SEASON AT THIS TIME: 184-82
Life In The Philloverse
Sunday, February 7, 2016
Sunday, January 24, 2016
NFL Conference Championship Game Picks -- Leaving the Balls at the Hotel Edition
We're down to the final four. Unfortunately the Seahawks didn't come through for me last week, so I've missed 2 games in the playoffs this year with three to play (last year I only missed 1 game the entire playoffs, because Green Bay choked). Still, 6-2 is nothing to be ashamed about.
It's going to be more challenging this time because I think all four teams are pretty evenly matched. There's four possible Super Bowl matchups (New England-Carolina, New England-Arizona, Denver-Carolina, Denver-Arizona), and I can legitimately see any of the four coming to fruition.
This week's picks:
New England 26, Denver 16 -- No idea what to make of this game. Does Peyton Manning have one last Super Bowl ring in him? Are the healthy Patriots back? Which defense will play better? I'm simply going to go with my heart on this one.
Arizona 20, Carolina 10 -- No idea what to make of this game either, but I've been picking against Carolina all year. Why stop now?
LAST WEEK: 3-1
SEASON TO DATE: 163-101
LAST SEASON AT THIS TIME: 183-81
It's going to be more challenging this time because I think all four teams are pretty evenly matched. There's four possible Super Bowl matchups (New England-Carolina, New England-Arizona, Denver-Carolina, Denver-Arizona), and I can legitimately see any of the four coming to fruition.
This week's picks:
New England 26, Denver 16 -- No idea what to make of this game. Does Peyton Manning have one last Super Bowl ring in him? Are the healthy Patriots back? Which defense will play better? I'm simply going to go with my heart on this one.
Arizona 20, Carolina 10 -- No idea what to make of this game either, but I've been picking against Carolina all year. Why stop now?
LAST WEEK: 3-1
SEASON TO DATE: 163-101
LAST SEASON AT THIS TIME: 183-81
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
What We Talk About When We Talk About Lace
I have this unhealthy habit of watching The Bachelor. I say unhealthy because I recognize that there's a lot to dislike about the show and its premise. Sure, there are 25 beautiful women and the eye candy factor is a strong appeal to me. But they try to win the affection of someone they barely know, by allowing themselves to be put in awkward situations that no self-respecting person would allow themselves to be placed, to start a very fake relationship with someone that rarely lasts longer than a couple of months beyond the final episode.
So here's a personal confession: I have very conflicted feelings about relationships. One side, the hopeless romantic in me, believes in true love and that there's a soulmate out there for everyone. Then there's the fatalist in me, who is convinced that, given enough time and exposure to each partners' dark side, all relationships are eventually doomed to failure. I guess The Bachelor appeals to each side of my own inner conflict.
The show's producers excel at editing in all the crazy from all the contestants. Most of them are probably very normal, but that wouldn't make good TV so normal interactions hit the cutting room floor. Every season there are a few "stars" who steal the show, who come across as, say, less than normal.
This year one of the early stars was Lace. Lace got a lot of attention by pulling Bachelor Ben aside what seemed like a couple hundred times and complaining that he wasn't paying attention to him, one time even after she had received a rose from him. This led to Lace being the subject of relentless livetweeting, and at one point I tweeted about it as well.
But on Monday night's episode, a funny thing happened on the way to the rose ceremony. Lace pulled Ben aside and told him she was leaving. She said "you can't love someone else until you love yourself."
That hit home with me. There have been times in my life when I didn't love myself and I think that often got in the way in all facets of my life. Learning to love myself is still a work in progress. I think I have much more self-appreciation that I used to, and that's helped me immensely in recent years. But there's a fine line between blind self-love (obliviousness, cockiness, arrogance, or however you want to phrase it) and wanting to improve as a human being, telling yourself, "You know I'm a pretty cool person but I'd be more satisfied with life if I [insert random self-improvement tool here]." I still have things I need to improve in myself, but I'm much happier and healthier than I was a couple of years ago.
Usually The Bachelor is just mind-numbing TV. Last night I felt like I learned something about myself. And it was all because a young lady named Lace changed the course of the conversation, even if only for a couple of minutes.
So here's a personal confession: I have very conflicted feelings about relationships. One side, the hopeless romantic in me, believes in true love and that there's a soulmate out there for everyone. Then there's the fatalist in me, who is convinced that, given enough time and exposure to each partners' dark side, all relationships are eventually doomed to failure. I guess The Bachelor appeals to each side of my own inner conflict.
The show's producers excel at editing in all the crazy from all the contestants. Most of them are probably very normal, but that wouldn't make good TV so normal interactions hit the cutting room floor. Every season there are a few "stars" who steal the show, who come across as, say, less than normal.
This year one of the early stars was Lace. Lace got a lot of attention by pulling Bachelor Ben aside what seemed like a couple hundred times and complaining that he wasn't paying attention to him, one time even after she had received a rose from him. This led to Lace being the subject of relentless livetweeting, and at one point I tweeted about it as well.
But on Monday night's episode, a funny thing happened on the way to the rose ceremony. Lace pulled Ben aside and told him she was leaving. She said "you can't love someone else until you love yourself."
That hit home with me. There have been times in my life when I didn't love myself and I think that often got in the way in all facets of my life. Learning to love myself is still a work in progress. I think I have much more self-appreciation that I used to, and that's helped me immensely in recent years. But there's a fine line between blind self-love (obliviousness, cockiness, arrogance, or however you want to phrase it) and wanting to improve as a human being, telling yourself, "You know I'm a pretty cool person but I'd be more satisfied with life if I [insert random self-improvement tool here]." I still have things I need to improve in myself, but I'm much happier and healthier than I was a couple of years ago.
Usually The Bachelor is just mind-numbing TV. Last night I felt like I learned something about myself. And it was all because a young lady named Lace changed the course of the conversation, even if only for a couple of minutes.
Saturday, January 16, 2016
NFL Divisional Playoff Picks -- Synthetic Marijuana Edition
Last week I went 3-1 in the wild-card round, probably should've gone 4-0 but I was convinced all four road teams couldn't win and gave way too much credit to the Houston Texans. Oh well.
This week's picks:
New England 28, Kansas City 21 -- Not sure what to make of this game, between Chandler Jones' marijuana incident last weekend, injuries to Gronk and Edelman and Vollmer, not to mention Jeremy Maclin on the Chiefs' side. Strictly a pick from my heart -- I can see this gam going either way.
Arizona 33, Green Bay 13 -- Can't see the Packers beating a team that beat them by 30 thre weeks ago. But I guess that's why they play the games.
Seattle 31, Carolina 17 -- I picked against Carolina a lot this year considering they were 15-1 team. And usually one home team blows it on Divisional Playoff week. So why not?
Denver 24, Pittsburgh 17 -- Steelers are depleted without Antonio Brown or DeAngelo Williams. I can see Pittsburgh rising up and overcoming but this seems too much like a game Denver is destined to win.
LAST WEEK: 3-1
SEASON TO DATE: 160-100
2015 THROUGH WILD-CARD GAMES: 179-81
This week's picks:
New England 28, Kansas City 21 -- Not sure what to make of this game, between Chandler Jones' marijuana incident last weekend, injuries to Gronk and Edelman and Vollmer, not to mention Jeremy Maclin on the Chiefs' side. Strictly a pick from my heart -- I can see this gam going either way.
Arizona 33, Green Bay 13 -- Can't see the Packers beating a team that beat them by 30 thre weeks ago. But I guess that's why they play the games.
Seattle 31, Carolina 17 -- I picked against Carolina a lot this year considering they were 15-1 team. And usually one home team blows it on Divisional Playoff week. So why not?
Denver 24, Pittsburgh 17 -- Steelers are depleted without Antonio Brown or DeAngelo Williams. I can see Pittsburgh rising up and overcoming but this seems too much like a game Denver is destined to win.
LAST WEEK: 3-1
SEASON TO DATE: 160-100
2015 THROUGH WILD-CARD GAMES: 179-81
Saturday, January 9, 2016
NFL Week 18 Picks -- Wild-Card Edition
Last year I went 10-1 in the postseason, and I would've been a perfect 11-0 had Green Bay not choked in the NFC Championship Game. Still, that's a lofty goal -- not sure I can go undefeated.
The picks:
Houston 19, Kansas City 13 -- Kansas City HAS to lose sometime.
Pittsburgh 35, Cincinnati 23 -- Just can't pick the Bengals over Pittsburgh with A.J. McCarron.
Seattle 34, Minnesota 10 -- Maybe this time when Cordarelle Patterson runs back a kick for a TD against Seattle and does a crazy end zone celebration dance, Vikings won't be trailing 35-0.
Green Bay 21, Washington 16 -- Green Bay just doesn't seem to have the offensive firepower this year, but I can't see them losing to the Redskins.
The picks:
Houston 19, Kansas City 13 -- Kansas City HAS to lose sometime.
Pittsburgh 35, Cincinnati 23 -- Just can't pick the Bengals over Pittsburgh with A.J. McCarron.
Seattle 34, Minnesota 10 -- Maybe this time when Cordarelle Patterson runs back a kick for a TD against Seattle and does a crazy end zone celebration dance, Vikings won't be trailing 35-0.
Green Bay 21, Washington 16 -- Green Bay just doesn't seem to have the offensive firepower this year, but I can't see them losing to the Redskins.
LAST
WEEK: 10-6
2015 TO DATE: 157-99
2014 AFTER WEEK 16: 175-81
Sunday, January 3, 2016
NFL 2015 Week 17 Picks -- Playoff Tiebreaker Edition
Week 17 is my favorite week of the
season – no Thursday night games, and doubleheaders on CBS and Fox.
This week’s picks:
New
Orleans 45, Atlanta 16 – Falcons
had their highlight last week beating Carolina. This could be a “mail it in”
game.
N.Y
Jets 28, Buffalo 9 – Ugh. Thinking the Bills might be
ripe to pull off the upset. Also thinking it’s sad when I’m kinda puuling for
the Jets.
Detroit
26, Chicago 24 – The only downside to Week 17 – a lot
of “nobody cares” games.
Baltimore
20, Cincinnati 10 – A late lump in the coal in the
stocking for Fox, which gets to flex this game in.
Pittsburgh
20, Cleveland 7 – Pittsburgh: needs help to make
playoffs, and by “needs help” I mean “needs to be realigned to the NFC East.”
Washington
44, Dallas 17 – Maybe Tony Romo will stay healthy
next year.
Houston
23, Jacksonville 17 – Pittsburgh
Steelers: good chance to miss the playoffs, would’ve clinched the AFC South six
weeks ago.
Indianapolis
27, Tennessee 10 – Colts make playoffs with a win
coupled with loses by the Texans, Saints, Browns, Patriots, Bengals, Jets, Chargers
and Chiefs – but only if psi of all footballs in each game is above 14.5
New
England 28, Miami 0 – THEN: “Boy
Dan Campbell really lit a fire under those Dolphins.” NOW: “Boy Dan Campbell
really has those Dolphins playing for a Top 5 draft pick.”
N.Y
Giants 34, Philadelphia 26 – Man
this blog is gonna miss Chip Kelly.
Seattle
23, Arizona 20 – If Carolina gets off to a big lead
on Tampa Bay, Cardinals will start mailing this one in.
Carolina
31, Tampa Bay 23 – Of course the one week I give up on
picking the Panthers to lose and Falcons to win, Atlanta turns around and
upsets Carolina.
Denver
33, San Diego 28 – Peyton Manning on the sidelines
today. This could end badly.
Kansas
City 31, Oakland 10 – Can’t wait
for this moving to Los Angeles dram to unfold this offseason for the Raiders,
Rams and Chargers.
St.
Louis 34, San Francisco 27 – 49ers
reportedly considering firing Jim Tomsula and hiring Chip Kelly. Man this blog
is gonna love Chip Kelly.
Green
Bay 37, Minnesota 34 – Somebody called
me “a good game manager” the other day. Now I know how Teddy Bridgewater feels.
LAST
WEEK: 10-6
2015 TO DATE: 147-93
2014 AFTER WEEK 16: 161-79
Wednesday, December 23, 2015
NFL 2015 Week 16 Predictions, Xmas Edition
Another good week. I lost the
Thursday and Monday night games, and in between those two bookends I went 12-2.
Merry Xmas to me.
The bad news is, it’s now
mathematically impossible for me to beat my winning percentage last year, as the
four losses means I eclipsed last year’s loss total for the year. Oh well. We’ll
get ‘em next year.
This week’s picks:
Oakland
26, San Diego 13 – Most important part of this matchup:
these two future stadium roommates hash out their locker room arrangements when
they both move to Los Angeles.
Philadelphia
27, Washington 24 – A Redskin victory would clinch the
high-school-melodramatic NFC East for Washington with a week to spare. So of
course the Eagles will win.
Carolina
10, Atlanta 3 – Still not convinced Carolina is an
undefeated-caliber team. Meanwhile I’m like 1-13 picking Falcons games this
year. So of course Atlanta will win.
Pittsburgh
23, Baltimore 20 – THE BAD NEWS: Ryan Mallett expected
to start at QB for the Ravens. THE GOOD NEWS: the game’s in Baltimore, so they don’t
have to worry about him missing the team flight.
Buffalo
14, Dallas 3 – The only two teams to meet in
back-to-back Super Bowls, except this year Troy Aikman and Jim Kelly aren’t walking
through that door.
Detroit
20, San Francisco 6 – Hard to believe
49ers looked really good on Opening Night against a team that’s virtually a
playoff lock.
Kansas
City 41, Cleveland 34 – Memo to
Johnny Manziel: when Terry Bradshaw’s tooling on you, it’s kinda sad.
Miami
20, Indianapolis 13 – Winning head
coach keeps game film for his resume.
New
England 17, N.Y. Jets 16 – Two weeks
ago Jets were 8-5 and (if the season had ended then) would’ve been in the
playoffs. They could conceivably win out and, because of crazy tiebreaker rules,
finish 11-5 and not make the playoffs. This is the kind of thing that would
only happen to the Jets.
Chicago
31, Tampa Bay 10 – Nobody cares.
Houston
27, Tennessee 24 – Ladies and gentlemen, your AFC South
champion Houston Texans….
New
Orleans 20, Jacksonville 19 – Twelve
years ago this week Saints, trailing 20-13, scored on a play involving like 12
laterals as time expired – and then missed the extra point to lose. It’ been
that kind of season for the Saints.
Arizona
26, Green Bay 17 – I’m surprised NBC isn’t flexing this
game to Sunday night.
Seattle
30, St. Louis 10 – At least the Rams won’t be
jet-lagged in Seattle anymore after they move to Los Angeles.
Minnesota
34, N.Y. Giants 17 – THIS WEEK’S NFL SUSPENSIONS: Odell
Beckham Jr., 1 game for head-butting Josh Norman; Tom Coughlin, 2 games for
coaching with his head up his ass in the final 1:45 of every 2015 Giants’ loss.
Denver
37, Cincinnati 28 – Last year this game was also on Week
16 Monday night and a Cincinnati win clinched home field throughout the
playoffs for New England. Hopefully Patriots will home-field wrapped up by
Sunday at 4.
LAST
WEEK: 12-4
2015 TO DATE: 137-87
2014 AFTER WEEK 14: 151-73
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