Sunday, February 1, 2015

Super Bowl XLIX Prediction

First of all, a couple of quick asides:

* Solid year for me picking games. I'm going to finish the 2014 season with a .689 (if I pick the Super Bowl incorrectly) or a .693 (if I pick it right) percentage. Not bad considering I was 13-19 after the first two weeks. Since then I'm prognosticating at a .731 clip.

* If the Green Bay Packers hadn't choked in the NFC Championship game, I'd be a perfect 10-0 in the playoffs. Thanks a lot, Packers. You suck.

Anyway, I've made a Super Bowl prediction each year since I started this blog in the fall of 2010. But I went back and forth about whether I should bother to make a prediction for Super Bowl XLIX, largely because my Patriots are involved. The Pats made it to Super Bowl 46 and I picked the Patriots, although conceding that it should be a close game that could go either way, and it was a close game that the Patriots lost, so I feel bad. Part of me wants to pick Seattle to win 73-0 to try and reverse karma. Part of me just wants to watch the game without feeling pressured to make a pick.

Injuries could be a factor. Seattle's secondary is banged up. New England's offensive line is banged up. After DeflateGate, Tom Brady's ego is banged up.

Like SB 46, I can see this game going either way. I can see the Seahawks riding the momentum of their last-second, come-from-behind win and cruising to a second consecutive Super Bowl win. I can see their defense giving Tom Brady and his banged-up offensive line fits. I can see Russell Wilson giving New England fits rolling out, much like the Ravens did in the AFC Divisional Playoff game. It's been a pretty exhausting first month of 2015 for me, and I feel like when I'm exhausted life has a way of piling on and making me even more miserable, and Seattle winning would be a tailor-made way of doing just that.

I can also see the Patriots shutting down Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and the rest of the Seattle offense. After all this DeflateGate BS, I can see an angry Patriots team taking it out on the Seahawks tonight.

I'm 14-4 picking Patriots games this year. And I started the season 1-3 calling Pats games, including a head-scratching decision to pick them to lose to the Vikings, not sure what the hell I was thinking there. Since Week 4 I'm 13-1 picking the Pats; the only time I've whiffed since then was picking them to lose to the Broncos.

I'm 13-5 picking Seahawks games this year (including blowing it in the Weeks 1 and 2). One week, I not only correctly picked Seattle to win but also correctly picked the exact score.

Even though I'd rather not make a prediction, I feel like I have an obligation to make one.

This could very easily be the wrong prediction. But I'm a Patriots fan, first and foremost. I have to go with my heart.

Patriots 24, Seahawks 6.

LAST WEEK -- 1-1

SEASON TO DATE -- 184-82 (175-81 regular season; 9-1 playoffs)


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